Campaigns and party research
For party research desks, campaign directors and community-independent campaigns. Results down to the booth, joined to demographics on the ABS spine across changing boundaries.
Politics
Electorate analysis
Federal and state results down to the booth, joined to census demographics on the ABS spine, across boundary sets that change.
Campaigns, party offices and peak bodies maintain a seat spreadsheet: seats down one side, margins and demographics across the top, assembled by hand from tally room downloads and census tables. It takes weeks to build, one person maintains it, and a redistribution makes it out of date.
South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory are being redistributed federally now. NSW state boundaries are redrawn before the 2027 election.
The join
Election results are published by polling place and division. Demographics are published by mesh block and statistical area. Neither carries the other's keys, and the boundaries move on different cycles: divisions on the redistribution cycle, statistical areas on the census cycle.
The small-area layer links them. Booth results plus roll mark-off records let votes be apportioned to statistical areas. Statistical areas are the key everything else in the lake uses: census counts, socioeconomic indices, population estimates, industry of employment, and every hazard and land layer. Once votes are on that spine, a seat profile is a query.
Rebuild the notional margins for the proposed South Australian divisions from the 2025 results, and list which suburbs moved between seats.
The output is a table of divisions under the proposed boundaries with the notional two-party-preferred result, the change against the current boundaries, and a list of the areas that moved with their population and demographic profile. The method is written out beside it: how votes were apportioned, which boundary vintages were used, and where the apportionment is weakest.
Seat profiles and change
The second common question is what changed. Between censuses, a division's age structure, income, industry, housing tenure and language profile move. The direction of that movement is often more useful than the level.
For these twelve marginal seats, show the demographic shift from 2016 to 2021 and how much of each division sits in a flood planning area or bushfire prone land.
Because hazard and climate layers sit on the same spine, exposure can be cut by electorate as well as by council area: dwellings in a flood planning area per division, projected hot days by 2050, canopy cover and heat, and coastline change. This cut is rarely available elsewhere.
Coverage
The first build covers federal results from 2004 onward, boundary sets including proposals under consultation, and NSW state and local government results. Three marts are derived from those: a division profile that time-aligns demographics across boundary sets, booth catchments, and a redistribution difference showing which voters moved and their profile.
The electoral layers are being loaded now. The ABS spine, the census, and the hazard and climate stack they join to are already live.
Frequently asked
How do results get to suburb or SA1 level?
Booth results are published by polling place. The electoral roll mark-off records which small area each voter who attended a booth came from. That link lets votes be apportioned to statistical areas, which makes a join to census demographics possible. It is an estimate with a stated method, not a count of how any small area voted.
Can it handle a redistribution?
Yes. Results counted on old boundaries are re-apportioned to the new ones through the small-area layer. A notional margin is reported with its method.
Is this available today?
The ABS spine, census, socioeconomic indices and population series are live now. The hazard and land layers needed for a climate-exposure-by-seat analysis are live too. The electoral layers, meaning results, boundary sets and roll-based small-area votes, are being loaded now. Contact us about timing for a specific state or election.
What about the licence on electoral data?
Australian Electoral Commission material carries its own terms rather than a Creative Commons licence. Derived products and redistribution are permitted with attribution and the required notice. That notice is included in the dataset documentation and in the footer of anything the agent produces from it.
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